Canada has examined one of the most extraordinary scenarios imaginable between two of the world's closest neighbors: what the country would do if the United States launched military action against it.
Prime Minister Mark Carney has confirmed that his government has considered the possibility, while stressing that such an event remains highly unlikely.
Carney discussed the issue in a recent interview with The New York Times, describing a potential U.S. military threat as an "extreme tail risk." He argued that a Canadian government still has a responsibility to consider even scenarios it does not expect to happen.
"That's just risk management," Carney said, adding that ignoring such a possibility altogether would be irresponsible.
Canadian media have since reported that military planners have examined hypothetical scenarios involving an American attack. The discussions do not mean Ottawa believes war with Washington is imminent. Instead, officials have characterized the work as contingency planning of the kind militaries routinely conduct.
The issue has attracted renewed international attention after BBC reporting examined why Canada is war gaming such an extraordinary possibility.
The political backdrop is the dramatic transformation of relations between Ottawa and Washington under U.S. President Donald Trump.
Trump has repeatedly spoken about Canada potentially becoming the 51st U.S. state, although he has previously indicated that military force against Canada was highly unlikely. His comments, combined with an escalating trade confrontation and broader questions about North American security, have nevertheless forced Ottawa to reassess assumptions once considered almost untouchable.
Canada is simultaneously accelerating a broader overhaul of its defense strategy.
The Canadian government says it is strengthening Arctic security, expanding military capabilities and developing deeper defense relationships with partners outside the United States. At the NATO summit in Ankara this summer, Carney's government said Canada was on a path toward spending 5 percent of GDP on defense by 2035.
Ottawa is also trying to diversify relationships that have historically depended heavily on Washington. Reuters reported this week that Carney is expected to visit Türkiye as Canada explores closer cooperation in areas including defense, energy and trade.
Carney has pursued a similar strategy in Europe amid deteriorating relations with Washington. During a September visit, he sought closer European partnerships while responding to repeated threats to Canada's sovereignty.
The possibility of an actual U.S. invasion remains remote, and Carney has not suggested otherwise. But the fact that Canada's prime minister is publicly acknowledging preparations for such a scenario illustrates how profoundly the relationship between the two countries has changed.
For generations, a military confrontation between Canada and the United States belonged almost entirely to history books.
Now, even if only as a worst case scenario, it has returned to the planning room.
